Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Bullish signs

New highs in USA indices have been accompanied with new highs in RSI in monthly chart so negative monthly divergences were cancelled. This may be the future of other indices in the world also, giving us still one leg of bullish run until Q2 in 2018. Bullish RSI line in SP500 seems to be valid and leading the index higher. It is probable that most of the other indices will follow. CCI30 is positive in weekly charts of SP500 and Nasdaq so the indices are in bullish mode. 

In DAX CCI30 dipped to slightly negative in weekly chart, but this is usually a sign of meaningful bottom. If not it may be a sign of meaningful dip. So this week (and maybe more) should be bullish. RSI-divergences gives us a chance for this. Negative monthly RSI-divergence is still valid in DAX so we must be careful and see what happens if DAX rises near the ATH. 

Long term negative divergence is valid in Bovespa but Nifty has risen and cancelled its own RSI-divergence. Anyway the bullish run has created other one and we must be careful what will happen. In weekly chart RSI is in 80-level and there are no divergences so seems to me that the bull is very strong. Usually (but not always) indices need some divergences before they turn south. It is obvious that CCI30 is positive in weekly chart. Nifty50 has risen slightly over the trend-line from previous major tops, so if we still see bullishness we can conclude that index is in very strong bullish mode. 


Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Correction or something bigger?

RSI-trendline from 2016 has kept bull alive, but the situation begins to change. Indices (DAX, SP500) have given bearish RSI-signals telling about correction lasting to mid august. Longer trendlines tells us about even longer downturn lasting to the end of the year.

SP500 has still a valid bullish RSI-trendiline giving a reason to belive that bull will stay alive until mid 2018, but at the same time bearish trendlines challenge this interpretation. We will have to watch which of these two will survive. Monthly charts are hinting about real bearmarket, lasting three years. We saw one in 2000-2003 and I think we are in wery much in the same situation - even more if we still see market rise for a 10 months or so.

CCI30 is still positive in the weekly chart so at least for now the indices are in bull-mode. This means any correction is a buying opportunity before proven otherwise (CCI30 turns negative).    

Nifty50 has also made a big bearish RSI-divergence in monthly chart indicating about three years of downturn - if it materialize. For now this is a possibility. For now Nifty has risen to overbought level and another ATH can produce divergences turning the index down. I would be seller in this market until it gives new buying signals. The situation is the same as in other indices.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Summertime bets

Hello investors and traders!

Summer seems to be the best time of the year to buy stocks (look for dips in the summer). I think this is what "sell in may and go away" means. 

Technically we are in good bullish long term trend up and indices have quite much room to go down for this to hold. CCI30 is still positive in weekly charts of DAX and SP500. RSI signals weakness for couple of months in the daily charts but now it looks like a buying opportunity in the longer trend up, because of bullish RSI in weekly chart of SP500. But we have to analyse this further when we come closer to the buying zone.

Nift50 is also in good long term trend up but it has not gives any short term bearish RSI-signals to much care about. For long term it has risen over negative RSI signal in the monthly chart so this gives us a bullish interpretation. We have to watch if Nifty50 will show some short term signal heading to buying opportunity.